To evaluate the developments in the energy sector it is necessary to assess the future developments. This happens in the so called scenarios.
Making the scenarios energy consumption and production, greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, the price of electricity in the Nordic electricity market and much more is calculated.
Scenarios are based on a number of assumptions and conditions, e.g. regarding costs and performance of energy technologies, expectations of fuel price developments, tax levels, expected economic growth, etc.
Danish Energy Outlook 2012
DEA expects to have a baseline scenario ready in early September 2012. As former scenarios, it will be by energy production, energy consumption and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.
The latest scenario 2011
The Danish Energy Agency has created a baseline scenario to 2030 by energy production, energy consumption and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. It shows a process of implementing the steps already adopted, but without additional means. The scenarios are not predictions but describes the development, which under a number of assumptions may occur by 2030 if hypothetically assumed there is not to be implemented new initiatives or instruments.
Links to Danish Energy Outlook is shown in the box in the right side of the text.
There are two different ways to assess the results of the baseline scenario: the Danish method and the international method. The existence of two different forms is caused by the Danish obligation to reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions measured as CO2-equivalents.
This includes CO2 from the final fuel consumption stated as the fuels sold in Denmark.
The UNFCCC-format differs from the national method by including border trade, but not international aviation. Furthermore, flaring is included in the international method and there is not adjusted for electricity trade.
In the national method private manufacturer are included as a separate item under electricity & district heating, while private manufactures in the international method are included as a part of final energy consumption under the respective industries. This does not include waste which is counted for in decentralized plants.
The Danish Energy Outlook 2011
The Dansih Energy Outlook 2011 is translated to english. It is a shorter version than the original - Danmarks Energifremskrivning, April 2011.
Danish Energy Outlook 2011, May 2011 (pdf-fil)
To see aditional scenarios go to the Danish site.